Bull v. Bear

Bottom line: Obvious, but COMPQ/SPX need to break through 52-week highs (from November) on a convincing basis. A break below 2200 COMPQ/1250 SPX would be very bad. Ideal outcome: rotation away from emerging markets/commodities into US equities, which would be evidenced by the break of the downtrend below.


Bearish:


Each successive rally was been weaker than the prior.


SPX:TLT ratio dropping, but barely above prior range. Bullish if bottom holds.


SPX underperforming GLD, but bullish if bottom holds through January/2006.


$XAU outperforming SPX, not good.


Interesting forecast from UCLA professor re. unwinding of bubbles:

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Bullish:


Potential outperforming emerging from SOX.


Internet outperforming SPX.

January is the best month of the year for stock performance, per Robert Haugen and Josef Lakonishok explained in The Incredible January Effect: The Stock Market's Unsolved Mystery.