Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Seeking balance in the yield curve.



The TLT (the long-end of the yield curve) has outperformed the middle of the curve for several years. The above chart is a visual representation of the yield curve conundrum and yield curve inversion, despite higher short-term rates. Should the "conundrum" unwind itself, watch as the uptrend/consolidation breaks down. If the TLT uptrend resumes, I don't know what's next...deflation?

 

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