Thursday, December 22, 2005

Not too late to join the most obvious trade of the year



This has to be the most obvious pairs trade: long TM, short GM. However as the chart shows, the TM:GM ratio has gone parablic as TM is at the cusp of a breakout, while GM is collapsing. It's not too late to join the fray: short GM on strength in Q1 2006 when there should be a brief respite from the year-end tax loss selling. Definitely short GM if it breaks below its 2005 low. As for TM, it looks like it's beginning another leg up. Buy on weakness and load the boat when TM clears its old 2000 high ~110.

Cover the GM short when GM puts an VW-class interior into a Chevy. Alas, GM's problems are structural...its products suck: too much plastic, lackluster exterior and interior aesthetics...even Helen Keller could the turn signals click on-off in some of those cars. Lexus crushes Caddy. GM=Folgers in a SBUX world. And unfortunately, it's the line factory worker (who can build a great product if given a chance) that gets the shaft for poor design and marketing. Worst case scenario: GM goes the way of RCA and lives on as a foreign-owned brand. Best case: GM declares bankruptcy, freezes its pension plan, crams a no-frills wage package onto the UAW.

 

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