Thursday, December 29, 2005

A bad chart for bulls...



As stated by others, forecasting is folly. So take this with a grain of salt, but keep it at the back of your mind. The above chart's cup and handle indicates that while gold's current strength may only be the beginning of the trend. Over the past 25 years, gold has traded at levels higher than today. Assuming that gold returns to its early-1990s level of 0.75 to the SPX, gold should be @~$900, assuming SPX stays around 1250.

Naturally, this chart conflicts this other charts previously mentioned. What's the right answer? I don't know and won't know for a while. However be warned; the above chart indicates that the froth of the 1993-2000 bull run still remains.

 

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