Saturday, January 07, 2006

Disco fever....history repeating?


An interesting chart: assuming that the October 2002 low in the $compx/$spx/$indu is analgous to the October 1974 low, then today = January 1978. (Correlation between 1/05-1/06 $compx and 1/77-1/78 $compx = ~0.83.) Will the markets climb the wall of worry? A lot of bearish sentiment definitely exists, but there are a few optimists.


Or assuming that October 2002 = July 1932. However, I believe if a correlation analysis is done, the value would be low. Even if these prior analogies are wrong, notice the cup and handles in the 1930s and 1970s that preceded the rallies.

 

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