Monday, January 02, 2006

2006. Meaning among confusion.

Good quote via Raymond James (Investment Strategyby Jeffrey Saut, note link probably won't stay current) via Big Picture.
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(Quoted from: http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm December 2005)
The call for this week: As commodity trader Hunt Taylor opines, “You have to pay the most attention to market moves that seem to make no sense, because those are the moves that contain the most information. They will make sense to you later on, but only as prices are very different from today.” We think the concurrent rally in gold AND the dollar over the past few months is such a “makes no sense” move. One of the two is lying! Our sense is that it is the dollar, which we expect to lose its tailwind in the New Year. Meanwhile, gold’s strength infers upcoming inflation that will be greater than most think. Or as Bill Fleckenstein notes, “In a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation.” We continue to invest accordingly.
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2006 will be about resolving the conflicts of 2005.
  1. If crude oil drops, is that a negative as it may infer weak economic growth?
  2. What is up with gold? Is the rise of gold a harbinger of inflation?
  3. What about the ~2 billion Indians/Chinese/Brazilians/etc. joining the global labor market, is this deflationary?
  4. How will the yield curve conundrum unwind?


 

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