Friday, December 30, 2005

Simple timing methods, part 2.

In 2005:
1. When $compx > 20d vwap & $compx > 40d vwap = 101 days. Cumulative return: 27%. average daily point gain: 5, st. dev: 13.3. 71 up days, 30 down days. average up day gain: 11.67, average down day gain: -10.6.

2. When $compx < 20d vwap & $compx < 40d vwap = 105 days. Cumulative return: -24%. average daily point gain: -5.5, st. dev: 17.5. 65 down days, 40 up days. average up day gain: 12, average down day gain: -16.

3. All other days (neutral days) = 46 days. Cumulative return: 5%. average daily point gain: 2.2, st. dev: 15.9, 25 up days, 21 down days. average up day gain: 14, average down day gain: -12.

Summary: stay with the trend.

 

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