More tidbits on timing.

From 2/5/71 to 1/5/06 (close), there have been 8812 trading days for the IXIC.

1. On any given day, the average change of the next day (t+1) is +0.0427%. This will be the "control." Cumulative return: 2205%.
   
2. On any given day t, when IXIC close > 10d average and > 30d average (i.e. an uptrend), the average t+1 change is +0.145%. 4287 days (t) when IXIC > 10d av and > 30d av., 2645 t+1 days = up and 1623 t+1 = down. Cumulative t+1 return +41707%. Annualized return: 42.5%.
   
3. On any given day t, when IXIC close <> 10d av and > 30d av. Cumulative t+1 return -96.4%. Annualized return: -26.7%.
4. On any given day t, when IXIC close <> 10d average (proxy for bounce in downtrend), the average t+1 change +0.098%. 828 days (t) when IXIC > 10d av and <>
5. On any given day t, when IXIC close > 30d average and <> 10d av and <>

Moral of the story: don't catch a falling knife and stay with the trend.