Saturday, January 07, 2006

Q1 2006: bullish until proven otherwise?

The second week of January (1st full work week) should clarify Q1. Possible scenarios: gap up Monday 1/9, which will be sold into...good for buying the dips if you're bullish. Worst case bearish scenario: intraweek reversal setting new lows of 2006.

Bullish indicators: $compx/$spx breakouts, need confirmation in $compx:tlt ratio. $NASI turning positive. See also
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/01/if_youre_bullis.html
http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/8890.html http://www.markethistory.com/content/content.html/8883.html (proprietary info)

Bearish indicators: none major yet, but be on guard for breakdown beneath 1/2006 lows. Negatives include lack of 52-week high expansion, lack of volume, strength of gold and $xau and the energy complex. See also
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/01/if_youre_bearis.html

 

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