Monday, Monday...so good to me?

From 1/20/04 to 1/6/06, average number of new highs for each day:
Monday/first day of the week: 110
Tuesdays: 96
Wednesdays: 96
Thursdays: 93
Fridays: 97
On days during which Monday is closed, Tuesday treated as Monday.
On days during which Friday is closed, Thursday treated as Friday.

Synchronicity

Between 1/14/04 - 1/16/05, 272 trading day.
Bull days: open $compx > 10av and > 25av = 232
Pullback days: open $compx <> 25av = 45
Bounce days: open $compx > 10av but < 25av = 53
Bear days: open $compx < 10av and < 25av = 174

During bull days: av. new high $compx: 132, av. new low $compx: 32
During non-bull days: av. new high $compx: 69, av. new low $compx: 67
During bear days: av. new high $compx: 57, av. new low $compx: 78.

No, we're not Chinese...we're Israeli.

If you missed the run-up in SNDK and want to join the party, perhaps you should consider SFUN.

Let's all chill.

Time of the market to chill out. Note: IWM/QQQQ divergence today. Pullback to 2310 would be good, but mind the stops. $compx break below 2300 = not good.

Bird flu, Monkeys, Typewriters, GILD, BCRX, Shakespeare

Last night, Nova (in conjunction with Discover Magazine) reviewed the top science stories of 2005. Of note, an interesting review of the chances of the bird flu mutating into an airborne pathogen. Should be of interest to BCRX and GILD holders.

Crazy times in Opticals.

What's going on with the optics? BKHM LPTH. What are the buyers seeing that others aren't?

Trimuph of the Optimists?

Review of a prior post.


Can the $sox breakout? Will 2006 be like 1995?

6 years from now....sex it up.

If six years ago someone told be that the easiest way to sextuple your money would be to buy a cement company, I would have laughed. Behold the power of the turtle and compounding:


Lessons to be learned: a) good long-term returns are about limiting drawdowns/consistency; b) the "fad" investments of today should be viewed with skepticism, ie "is everything really different this time?" So maybe you should rethink about buying into the energy sector fund in 06.

I'm so bullish I can't see straight.

Bullish: Low volatility breakout (hopefully not breakdown) forming.


Bearish: Everything under the sun: war, yield curve inversion, recession, commodities, deficits, poor market internals, valuation, no real wage growth, fire, brimstone, wrath of God.

Market Preview: 06-01-09 Tuesday

MARKETS
$compx: straight line trend since Tuesday 1/3, vulnerable to short-term correction. buy dips unless Monday's lows get taken out. dip indicated by drop into 50percentile range of hourly %K stochastic.

$compx > 10d av
$compx > 25d av

SECTORS
weaker: $xau
stronger: $sox, $iix, eem, $btk

outerformance of xlk vis-a-vis xle brewing.
mind the stops.

On buyer's minds...drugs and billions of eyeballs

Looking good today: BTK and medical-related ( VPHM ISRG ADLR AMLN and non-US internet/media IIJI REDF FMCN )

Potential reversal: ICO?

Bullish: agg:spy on the verge of breakout.
Bearish: spy:tlt not confirming market breakout.

Internet Buy Program?

Looks like a buy program kicked in ~ 10.10a ET on select internet names.

YHOO: the "don't forget about us" internet company

YHOO's push to grab desktop "mindshare," http://www.widgetgallery.com/ -- offering mac-like functions for windows users. Pretty cool.

For those who think that GOOG is overvalued: YHOO unilateral pairs trade vis-a-vis GOOG or long YHOO and short GOOG. Personal forecast, GOOG will be unstoppable until March 1 - April 10.

Best/Worst Sectors: First Week of 2005

10 Best Performing Industries
Industry Name
Percent Change (over time selected)
DJ US Internet Index
11.35%
DJ US General Mining Index
9.74%
DJ US Gold Mining Index
9.00%
DJ US Oil Equipment & Services Inde...
8.89%
DJ US Oil Equipment, Services & Dis...
8.24%
DJ US Telecommunications Equipment...
8.10%
DJ US Mining Index
7.94%
DJ US Semiconductors Index
7.85%
DJ US Platinum & Precious Metals In...
7.52%
DJ US Technology Hardware & Equipme...
6.92%

10 Worst Performing Industries
Industry Name
Percent Change (over time selected)
DJ US Railroads Index
-3.24%
DJ US Industrial Transportation Ind...
-1.04%
DJ US Home Improvement Retailers In...
-1.00%
DJ US Broadline Retailers Index
-0.56%
DJ US Footwear Index
-0.30%
DJ US Delivery Services Index
-0.30%
DJ US Distillers & Vintners Index
-0.06%

Sector Overview

Sectors (non-exclusive list by SPX cap. weighting)

1. Financials XLF: XBD BKX
2. Technology XLK: NWX SOX DJUSNS
3. Health Care XLV: BTK DRG DJUSHP
4. Industrials XLI: trans DJUSAE DJUSCH
5. Discretionary XLY: RTH DJUSCG DJUSHB DJUSAP DJUSCA
6. Energy XLE: XNG OSX
7. Staples XLP
8. Utilities XLU
9. Materials XLB: XAU DJUSBS DJUSIM DJUSNF

Good setups.

REDF TOMO CRME AVII IINT VCLK ISRG. Stops = 10 day low.

Things to Watch

1. $SOX:$OSX ratio at record low.
2. $XAU:SPY going parabolic, but at multi-year highs. Notice how $XAU:SPY ratio often goes parabolic, rarely bases. Watch for potential sector rotation out of $XAU.
3. DJ Internet Index at highs.

2005 Gaps on Monday

From 1/3/05 - 1/6/06, re. $compx. (general data, more details to follow)
Question: What's the deal with Monday morning gaps in the $compx?
53 Monday mornings from 1/3/05 to 1/6/06. (If market closed on Monday, Tuesday=Monday.)

A. 53 Mondays/Tuesdays.

1. Gap Up on 32 days. On 13 of these 32 Gap Up days, $compx closed below the gap.
2. Gap Down on 21 days. On 12 of these 21 Gap Down days, $compx closed above the gap.

Average gap on first days of the week: +0.063%
Cumulative return (friday close-next week's open): +3.37%
Average gap for non-first days of the week: +0.0446%
Cumulative return (close-next day's open, ex. Mondays): +9.38% (naturally, more days included = more extreme returns)

Average change from open to close on first days of the week: +0.0918%
Cumulative return (open to close on the first days of the week): +4.83%
Average change from open to close on non-first days of the week: -0.0524%
Cumulative return (open to close on non-first days of the week): -10.59%