investmentyearbook.com: April 01, 2007

investmentyearbook.com

Random thoughts and rhetorical questions from yet another blog focused on business trends for an audience of one, me. Just jotting thoughts, notes, etc. Nothing much more than that. There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know... ~The ironic zen of Donald Rumsfeld

Saturday, April 07, 2007

What is the sound of one market going parabolic?

The effects of excessive liquidity as demonstrated by the recent performance of the Shenzhen Index.

The Crowded Trade

How will this carry trade unwind?

A Carry Trade

Will this carry trade push on or collapse under its own weight? Was February's decline partially caused by the unwinding of the carry trade as the Yen spiked?

Monday, April 02, 2007

Mothers let your sons be investment bankers.

For the 12 months, GS and the Russell 1000 have a correlation of 0.99.

For the future of Main Street check out the Bund

As goes the US economy and the US Dollar so goes Asia. Can the ADRA (Asia 50 ADR ETF) mark a new high?

The canary in the coal mine.

Once again eyes and ears strain to process the news from the Middle East. A possible canary in the coal mine with respect to Mideast tension is the Tel Aviv 100.

Note that hostilities in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon Conflict/War started on July 12 and ceased on August 14. Did the May/June 2006 global equity downturn reflect smart money's fears of a hot summer? Presumably, if anyone can smell a foreboding tinge of conflict in the air it will be Israeli smart money.