Friday, March 03, 2006

The magic number is 1138.


INTC joined the confederacy of dunces this morning. Nevertheless, the market attempts to climb a wall of worry and make new highs. The magic number is 1138, the 2006 high for the $NDXE.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

What's in a name?

EEM is the "emerging markets" ETF. The term "emerging markets" creates an air of international adventurism as investments are made in far off countries geared toward the economic development of India, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, etc.

Unfortunately, the reality is that a substantial proportion of the companies in the EEM reflect the economic health of the US/Western Europe and not of the developing world. The top 10 EEM holdings are:

6.73% Samsung Electronics Co Ltd GDR Registered
3.62% Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR
3.41% Kookmin Bank ADR
2.51% LUKOIL Sponsored ADR
2.46% Posco ADR
2.25% Korea Electric Power Corp ADR
2.13% Siliconware Precision Industries Co ADR
1.98% America Movil SA de CV Series L
1.78% Petroleo Brasileiro SA Preferred ADR
1.78% United Microelectronics Corp ADR
28.65% Total

Investors buying into the EEM presumably to achieve returns uncorrelated with the US market are not doing their homework. Tech names like Samsung and TSM rise and fall vis-a-vis QCOM, NOK, AAPL, MOT, INTC. Owning PBR is not different from owning XOM, BP. Of the above 10, the only truly non-correlated names to the US market are KEP, KB and AMX.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble.

Anecdotally, there is the stadium naming curse. Supposedly, the corporate sponsorship of a sport stadium represents the ultimate in hubris and poor management, ie PSINet Field and Enron Stadium.

The latest corporate stadium?....Lucas Oil Field. Lucas Oil primarily manufactures lubricants for trucks....does this equal a market top in oil? nascar? nothing at all?

Proud to be an American?

An aside from the CIA world factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html

US:
Population below poverty line:
Definition Field Listing
12% (2004 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
Definition Field Listing
lowest 10%: 1.8%
highest 10%: 30.5% (1997)
Distribution of family income - Gini index:
Definition Field Listing
45 (2004)

China:
Population below poverty line:
Definition Field Listing
10% (2001 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
Definition Field Listing
lowest 10%: 2.4%
highest 10%: 30.4% (1998)
Distribution of family income - Gini index:
Definition Field Listing
44 (2002)

Monday, February 27, 2006

March of the Broker-Dealers



The $XBD/broker-dealers steadily outperformed the SPX over the past decade, through boom, bust, panic and euphoria. Given the fact that many of the broker-dealers basically are the world's largest hedge funds (GS, LEH, etc), the $XBD has benefited from a global rise in trading and increased liquidity.

While many are forecasting a bear market, the real moment to be concerned is when the $XBD breaks down. When, if ever, will that happen?

Scurry in a hurry?



Before the recent Iraqi violence due to the Samarra mosque bombing, Time magazine planned to run a cover highlighting GWB's visit to India, while Newsweek highlights Bush's visit with an Indian woman in a saari.

Given Time magazine's (and general news magazines) poor track record of highlighting investment trends (AMZN/Bezos Man of the Year 1999, Google profile 2/2006, falling USD 12/2004, Mittal's profile in Time Asia, etc.), it is time to sell India for the near-term?

Sunday, February 26, 2006

SAC goes pink.


Recently, SAC Capital (Steven A Cohen's fund) initiated a fairly large position in Vaxgen (VXGN), a biodefense play. Time to follow the leader?

The New Soup Du Jour



Is there a sector rotation into the health care sector? One-seventh of the US economy, pricing power, "recession-proof," favorable demographics and forgotten about for the past few years...correct?

 

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