investmentyearbook.com
Random thoughts and rhetorical questions from yet another blog focused on business trends for an audience of one, me. Just jotting thoughts, notes, etc. Nothing much more than that. There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know... ~The ironic zen of Donald Rumsfeld
Friday, March 03, 2006
Thursday, March 02, 2006
What's in a name?
EEM is the "emerging markets" ETF. The term "emerging markets" creates an air of international adventurism as investments are made in far off countries geared toward the economic development of India, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, etc.
Unfortunately, the reality is that a substantial proportion of the companies in the EEM reflect the economic health of the US/Western Europe and not of the developing world. The top 10 EEM holdings are:
6.73% | Samsung Electronics Co Ltd GDR Registered |
3.62% | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR |
3.41% | Kookmin Bank ADR |
2.51% | LUKOIL Sponsored ADR |
2.46% | Posco ADR |
2.25% | Korea Electric Power Corp ADR |
2.13% | Siliconware Precision Industries Co ADR |
1.98% | America Movil SA de CV Series L |
1.78% | Petroleo Brasileiro SA Preferred ADR |
1.78% | United Microelectronics Corp ADR |
28.65% | Total |
Investors buying into the EEM presumably to achieve returns uncorrelated with the US market are not doing their homework. Tech names like Samsung and TSM rise and fall vis-a-vis QCOM, NOK, AAPL, MOT, INTC. Owning PBR is not different from owning XOM, BP. Of the above 10, the only truly non-correlated names to the US market are KEP, KB and AMX.
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble.
Anecdotally, there is the stadium naming curse. Supposedly, the corporate sponsorship of a sport stadium represents the ultimate in hubris and poor management, ie PSINet Field and Enron Stadium.
The latest corporate stadium?....Lucas Oil Field. Lucas Oil primarily manufactures lubricants for trucks....does this equal a market top in oil? nascar? nothing at all?
Proud to be an American?
An aside from the CIA world factbook: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html
US:
Population below poverty line: | ![]() ![]() 12% (2004 est.) |
Household income or consumption by percentage share: | ![]() ![]() lowest 10%: 1.8% highest 10%: 30.5% (1997) |
Distribution of family income - Gini index: | ![]() ![]() 45 (2004) |
China:
Population below poverty line: | ![]() ![]() 10% (2001 est.) |
Household income or consumption by percentage share: | ![]() ![]() lowest 10%: 2.4% highest 10%: 30.4% (1998) |
Distribution of family income - Gini index: | ![]() ![]() 44 (2002) |
Monday, February 27, 2006
March of the Broker-Dealers


The $XBD/broker-dealers steadily outperformed the SPX over the past decade, through boom, bust, panic and euphoria. Given the fact that many of the broker-dealers basically are the world's largest hedge funds (GS, LEH, etc), the $XBD has benefited from a global rise in trading and increased liquidity.
While many are forecasting a bear market, the real moment to be concerned is when the $XBD breaks down. When, if ever, will that happen?
Scurry in a hurry?


Before the recent Iraqi violence due to the Samarra mosque bombing, Time magazine planned to run a cover highlighting GWB's visit to India, while Newsweek highlights Bush's visit with an Indian woman in a saari.
Given Time magazine's (and general news magazines) poor track record of highlighting investment trends (AMZN/Bezos Man of the Year 1999, Google profile 2/2006, falling USD 12/2004, Mittal's profile in Time Asia, etc.), it is time to sell India for the near-term?
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Links
Previous Posts
- The Great Deleverage
- The bottom?
- You're neurotic like a yo-yo
- No treasury bubble....yet.
- Defense.
- On the precipice.
- The canary on its last tweet?
- An old saw..
- Masters of the universe no longer.
- History Repeating?
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